Gbenga A. Olalude https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9950-0552 , Hammed A. Olayinka https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9796-5276 , Oluwadare O. Ojo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6706-1110
ARTYKUŁ

(Angielski) PDF

STRESZCZENIE

The aim of the paper is to examine the mean reversion in health expenditure of 45 sub-Saharan African countries. The series on current health expenditure (percent of GDP in total), obtained from the World Development Indicators, each spanned the years 2000–2017. We employed the Fourier unit root test, which allows modelling structural breaks, to deal with any such breaks that could arise as a result of a small sample size (18 years) of data available on health expenditure of the selected countries. The results showed evidence of mean reversion in the health spending pattern of 27 sub-Saharan African countries. There is evidence of nonmean reversion in the health expenditure pattern of the remaining 18 countries considered. We further investigate the link between health expenditure and health outcome, using infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate as health outcome variables. An inverse association could be observed between the infant mortality rate and health expenditure and between the under-five mortality rate and health expenditure in 24 sub-Saharan African countries. On the other hand, in 13 other sub-Saharan African countries we observed a positive association between the variables. The findings of this study could be of great importance to healthcare delivery programmes in the studied countries.

SŁOWA KLUCZOWE

mean reversion, health expenditure, healthcare, Fourier unit root test, sub-Saharan Africa

JEL

C22, H39, H51, I15

BIBLIOGRAFIA

Anyanwu, J. C., & Erhijakpor, A. E. O. (2007). Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes in Africa (Economic Research Working Paper, No. 91). https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/26820442-FR-ERWP-91.PDF .

Barro, R. J. (1996). Health, Human Capital, and Economic Growth.

Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x .

Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2000). The Health and Wealth of Nations. Science, 287(5456), 1207– 1209. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5456.1207 .

Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2003). The health and poverty of nations: From theory to practice. Journal of Human Development, 4(1), 47–71. http://doi.org/10.1080/1464988032000051487 .

Burnside, C., & Dollar, D. (1998). Aid, the Incentive Regime, and Poverty Reduction (Policy Research Working Paper Series 1937). https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1937.html .

Crémieux, P. Y., Ouellette, P., & Pilon, C. (1999). Health care spending as determinants of health outcomes. Health Economics, 8(7), 627–639. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1050(199911)8:7<627::AID-HEC474>3.0.CO;2-8 .

Darmouni, O., & Zeltzer, D. (2017). Horizon Effects and Adverse Selection in Health Insurance Markets (Columbia Business School Research Paper No. 17–27). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2916823 .

Deaton, A. S., & Tortora, R. (2015). People In Sub-Saharan Africa Rate Their Health And Health Care Among The Lowest In The World. Health Affairs, 34(3), 519–527. http://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2014.0798 .

Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012a). A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks. Oxford Bulleting of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x .

Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012b). The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey-Fuller Type Unit Root Tests. Economic Letters, 117(1), 196–199. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081 .

Etheridge, B. (2015). A test of the household income process using consumption and wealth data. European Economic Review, 78, 129–157. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.05.003 .

Filmer, D., & Pritchett, L. (1999). The impact of public spending on health: does money matter?. Social Science & Medicine, 49(10), 13091323. http://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-9536(99)00150-1 .

Furuoka, F. (2017). A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis. Empirical Economics, 53(3), 1253–1280. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1164-7 .

Gbesemete, K. P., Gerdtham, U.-G. (1992). Determinants of Health Care Expenditure in Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study. World Development, 20(2), 303–308. http://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(92)90108-8 .

Gerdtham, U.-G., Sogaard, J., Andersson, F., & Jönsson, B. (1992). An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: a cross-section study of the OECD countries. Journal of health economics, 11(1), 63–84. http://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6296(92)90025-V .

Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Mark, W. (2004). Health human capital and economic growth in sub-Saharan African and OECD countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 44(2), 296–320. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2003.07.002 .

Jaunky, V. C., & Khadaroo, A. J. (2008). Health Care Expenditure and GDP: An African Perspective. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 131–146. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.993033 .

Lu, C., Schneider, M. T., Gubbins, P., Leach-Kemon, K., Jamison, D., & Murray, C. (2010). Public financing of health in developing countries: a cross-national systematic analysis. The Lancet, 375(9723), 1375–1387. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60233-4 .

Lv, Z., & Zhu, H. (2014). Health Care Expenditure and GDP in African Countries: Evidence from Semiparametric Estimation with Panel Data. The Scientific World Journal, 1–6. http://doi.org/10.1155/2014/905747 .

Mahdavi-Damghani, B. (2013). The Non-Misleading Value of Inferred Correlation: An Introduction to the Cointelation Model. Wilmott, (67), 50–61. http://doi.org/10.1002/wilm.10252 .

Micah, A. E., Chen, C. S., Zlavog, B. S., Hashimi, G., Chapin, A., & Dieleman, J. L. (2019). Trends and drivers of government health spending in sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–2015. BMJ Glob Health, 4(1), 1–10. http://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001159 .

Nik Mustapha, N. H., Kululub Abd Rashid, N., & Nasir, A. (2011). Household Income and Expenditure Relationships: A Simultaneous Equation Approach. Chinese Business Review, 10(6), 395–405.

Okunade, A. A. (2005). Analysis and Implications of the Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure in African Countries. Health Care Management Science, 8(4), 267–276. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-005-4137-5 .

Olaniyan, O., Onisanwa, I. D., & Oyinlola, A. (2013, March 17–19). Health care expenditures and GDP in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Panel Data. Conference on Economic Development in Africa, St Catherine’s College, Oxford.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (n.d.). Health spending. Retrieved September 9, 2020 from https://data.oecd.org/healthres/health-spending.htm .

Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the oil price shocks, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrical, 57(6), 1361–1401. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712 .

Schultz, T. P. (1999). Health and Schooling Investments in Africa. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(3), 67–88. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.3.67 .

Simplicio, D. A., & Amba, M. C. O. (2016). Health expenditure and real disposable income in the ECCAS: A Causal Study using spatial panel approach. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 4(8), 65–85. http://ijecm.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/485.pdf .

Wagstaff, A., & Cleason, M. (2004). The Millennium Development Goals for Health: Rising to the challenge. Washington: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/14954 .

World Bank. (n.d.). https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx .

World Health Organization. (2013). Research for Universal Health Coverage. Geneva. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240690837 .

Yaya, O. S., Ogbonna, A. E., & Mudida, R. (2019). Hysteresis of unemployment rates in Africa: new findings from Fourier ADF test. Quality & Quantity, 53(6), 2781–2795. http://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00894-6 .

Zaman, S. B., Hossain, N., Mehta, V., Sharmin, S., & Mahmood, S. A. I. (2017). An Association of Total Health Expenditure with GDP and Life Expectancy. Journal of Medical Research And Innovation, 1(2), AU7–AU12. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.576546 .

Zivot, E., & Andrews D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391541 .

Do góry
Copyright © 2019 Główny Urząd Statystyczny