Maciej Beręsewicz ORCID , Grzegorz Gudaszewski ORCID , Marcin Szymkowiak ORCID
ARTYKUŁ

(Polski) PDF

STRESZCZENIE

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie metody badań oraz wyników szacunku populacji cudzoziemców przebywających w Polsce. W badaniu wykorzystano administracyjne źródła danych. Zastosowano metodę capture-recapture bazującą na modelach log-liniowych. Szacuje się, że w 2015 i 2016 r. na terenie Polski mogło przebywać odpowiednio ok. 500 tys. (przyjmując 95-procentowy przedział ufności – od 369 tys. do 724 tys.) oraz ok. 744 tys. (od 601 tys. do 943 tys.) cudzoziemców. Jest to pierwsza tego typu kompleksowa analiza dotycząca próby estymacji liczby cudzoziemców w Polsce, która wpisuje się w nurt badań nad populacjami trudnymi do zbadania. Należy jednak mieć na uwadze konieczność spełnienia założeń tej metody, co również stanowił przedmiot rozważań autorów.

SŁOWA KLUCZOWE

estymacja liczby cudzoziemców, populacja trudna do zbadania, metoda capture-recapture, analiza log-liniowa, rejestry administracyjne

JEL

C81, J61, J68, F22

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